Marketing Newscast

(Edited 06 November 2024)

US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and Bitcoin have all risen as Donald Trump looks set to become the 47^th President of the USA, and his Republican party took back control of the Senate. The dollar gained 1.65% to hit its highest level against a basket of foreign currencies in four months, and did so in the fastest time in almost two years. The rise makes the pound worth $1.283, its lowest in two months. 10-year Treasury yields jumped 17 basis points to 4.44%, a four-month high; and Bitcoin climbed to a record $75,060 peak in anticipation of a more favourable regulatory climate under Trump. Wall Street responded favourably the news: the S&P 500 closed 1.2 % higher last night, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3%. Elon Musk, a proud backer of Trump, saw shares in his electric car giant Tesla surge 3.9% at close. The FTSE 100 has soared 1.22% higher to 8,272 at the time of writing this morning, and the FTSE 250 has gained 1.58% to rise to 20,692.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has congratulated Donald Trump on his “historic election victory”. “I look forward to working with you in the years ahead,” he wrote in his official letter, which continued: “As the closest of allies, we stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of our shared values of freedom, democracy and enterprise. From growth and security to innovation and tech, I know that the UK-US special relationship will continue to prosper on both sides of the Atlantic for years to come.” “

The Chancellor will breach of her own fiscal rules if interest rates remain just .30 basis points higher than the fiscal watchdog forecasts, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warmed. Giving evidence to the House of Commons’ Treasury Committee yesterday, OBR member Tom Josephs said analysis showed that “a change of the effective interest rate of 0.3 per cent…” was all that was needed for Rachel Reeves to break her pledges. “A one percentage point increase in interest rates adds about £16bn or so to borrowing,” Josephs added. “The Chancellor chose to ramp up borrowing and spending by up to £70bn each year at last week’s Budget, leaving just £10bn of fiscal headroom to achieve her commitment to balance day-to-day spending by 2029,” City AM reports. The OBR has also said that the Treasury did not disclose a £9.5bn overspend in the public finances in the run-up to the previous government's Budget, that it should have done "under the law".

Farmers have been dealt yet another blow: quietly, Labour has closed a valuable loophole for pick-up truck drivers, which will mean they pay thousands of pounds extra in car tax, The Telegraph reports. From April next year, commercial pick-up trucks weighing more than one tonne – such as the Ford Ranger and Nissan Navara - will be classed as cars rather than vans for benefit-in-kind purposes. The policy change, buried on page 133 of last week’s Budget document, means tax bills for four-door trucks will rocket: a 20% taxpayer driving a pick-up as a company vehicle currently pays a flat rate of £792 a year, while a 40%c taxpayer pays £1,584 a year, but this will surge to £4,400 a year for a basic rate taxpayer and £8,880 a year for a higher rate taxpayer driving Ford Ranger 2.0-litre diesel, the newspaper points out. The previous Conservative Government proposed the same policy, but reversed the decision within days following strong backlash from the farming community. HM Revenue & Customs conceded it would “risk unintended harm to agricultural businesses”. Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP for Orkney and Shetland, who chairs the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, said: “The more detail that we learn about this Budget the more we see a smorgasbord of bad news for farming rooted in a lack of understanding of how our rural communities work”. He added: “The goodwill of farming communities is rapidly being frittered away.”

Primark owner Associated British Foods (ABF) says it may invest outside of the UK, fearing British High Streets will bear the "weight of tax rises" announced in the Budget. CEO George Weston said: "We’re an international business as well, we have choices about where we will invest." Although the firm has just announced a 43% rise in profits before tax, taking the total to £1.9bn in the year to 14^th September, it is now preparing for a rise in costs because of changes to employers' national insurance (NI) contributions and in increase in the minimum wage. ABF's wage bill will "go up by tens of millions", Weston said, adding: "It's quite clear to me that this a Budget where the weight of the tax rises are falling on business - within that, it's fallen particularly on the high street".

Wetherspoons boss Tim Martin has reported record quarterly sales, but also warned that the Budget means prices at his pubs will have to go up – despite the 1p reduction in tax on a pint. “All hospitality businesses, we believe, plan to increase prices, as a result. Wetherspoon will, as always, make every attempt to stay as competitive as possible,” he told shareholders in a statement. The Spoons’ taxes and business costs are expected to increase by around £60m because of the Chancellor’s tax hikes, with a 67% increase in the cost of national insurance contributions alone. “The company is confident of a reasonable outcome for the year, although forecasting is more difficult given the extent of the increased costs,” Martin added. Wetherspoons’ like-for-like sales grew 5.9% year-on-year, with a particularly strong rise for the firm’s slot/fruit machines, which jumped 13.5%. The group currently has 797 across the country.

The average graduate will take 32 years to repay a £128,000 loan under Labour’s plan to raise tuition fees from next year, according to analysis for The Telegraph by accountancy firm Blick Rothenberg. The average student runs up debts oof £124,700 at present. Blick Rothenberg reached its conclusions based on an average graduate salary of £30,000; assuming an annual 5% pay rise; and a maintenance loan of £6,573, which is typical of a household income of £50,000. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson says the decision to raise the cap on fees from £9,250 to £9,535 is necessary to tackle a “funding crisis” in the higher-education sector.

Strikes planned on the London Underground this week have been suspended following talks over pay between the Aslef union and Transport for London (TfL). TfL says services will run as usual.

Asda is ordering staff back to the office at least three days a week, effective from January 2025, and cutting jobs, it said yesterday, releasing the news to employees in an internal email.  The office edict applies to more than 5,000 head office workers across three different locations in Leeds and Leicester. Interim CEO Lord Rose has confirmed Britain’s third-largest supermarket is also scrapping a number of head office jobs, but he refused to tell The Telegraph how many employees were being let go.

Shares in FTSE 100 pharma AstraZeneca tumbled yesterday, wiping £14bn off the value of Britain’s largest drug maker, following revelations that dozens of senior executives in its China unit could be implicated in an insurance fraud case in the country’s pharmaceutical sector. In September, it emerged that five current and former AstraZeneca employees had been detained by the Chinese police looking into possible breaches related to data privacy and importing unlicensed medications regarding the marketing of cancer drugs for AZ’s oncology division. An AstraZeneca spokesperson said: “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on speculative media reports including those related to ongoing investigations in China. If requested, we will fully cooperate with the Chinese authorities. We continue to deliver our life-changing medicines to patients in China and our operations are ongoing.”

NatWest bank has agreed to outsource roughly a third of its £33bn retirement scheme to Rothesay in the biggest-ever deal of its kind, Sky News has learnt.

Adam Crozier, Chairman of FTSE-100 leisure group Whitbread, is leaving the Premier Inn owner after nearly eight years on its board, Sky News reports. Headhunters at Russell Reynolds have begun sourcing possible candidates to replace him.